OR, how the Web will eat everything in its path – again.
Now that WebGL is truly everywhere, the close-knit, doggedly persistent and technically masterful group of folks who made it happen over the last several years can take a collective bow. From Vlad Vukićević, WebGL’s creator, to the countless engineers and working group members on browser teams who created a great spec and world-class implementations, to Ricardo Cabello Miguel, aka Mr.doob for the amazing Three.js, to us camp followers and blogging faithful: congrats, felicidades, and kudos on a job well done!
But we can barely pause to enjoy the moment, because there’s a new game afoot: Virtual Reality. From the Oculus kickstarter to the Facebook acquisition, this surreal ride has already turned the industry on its ear. New products will be forged, new markets will appear out of nowhere, and new fortunes will surely be made.
And a new war begins.
Ultimately, hardware like the Oculus Rift will become a commodity. That’s just the way of it. In the long term, the big winners will be the applications and content that run on VR hardware. And those applications will need software.
But what software? Whose software?
Do a web search for “Oculus Rift demos.” You will find many portal sites featuring amazing experiences. All of the demos are native code applications for PC or Mac – solitary, wall-garden experiences; massive downloads; not integrated with the Internet. Earlier this month, I was privileged to speak at the first-ever Silicon Valley Virtual Reality Conference. The demos on the show floor were also all native “silo” applications. Given my purview, I naturally asked several of the startup founders at the conference about their plans to use WebGL and other web technology. The reactions ranged from blank stares to outright truculence: it’ll never work, it’s too slow, and why would I want to do that? It’s a familiar tune I’ve been hearing for years.
I imagine we’ll hear it for a while longer. In the rush to snag millions in venture money while it’s popping fresh, developers have flocked to proprietary tools, closed systems, and native apps. It’s hard to blame people. This is the easy way, the obvious way. But we don’t do these things because they are easy; we do these things because they are hard.
The hard way, the right way, the way that will win in the long haul, is to build virtual reality on the Web. Using HTML5, WebGL and CSS3, we can create VR experiences that run virtually anywhere, instantly accessible, with no downloads. Integrated. Connected. Social. Mashable. Hackable. Shareable. You know: the Web. Yes, it is early. And we’ll need some extra support in the browser itself to make it work. But that’s coming.
Last night I presented early demos of WebGL applications running in Oculus VR using various browser extension hacks. It’s not great yet, it’s still very early, but it’s promising. I also gave a great talk – but Mozilla’s Josh Carpenter (@joshcarpenter) stole the show. Josh threw down about how in 5 years’ time we won’t be navigating flat pages any more, that the whole interface to information will be in 3D, experienced through virtual reality display technology and new interface paradigms. An inspiring few minutes (dude, you had me at “psychedelic”)!
Josh’s manifesto wasn’t just idle speculation. He’s already working on it. In fact, today Mozilla shared that they are working on building Oculus Rift support directly into the Firefox nightly builds. Carpenter and Vukićević gave a live talk on Air Mozilla that outlines their plans. Josh actually dropped the bomb at last night’s meetup, and then was joined by Brandon Jones of Google, who is also playing with doing the same in Chrome. There are no time frame commitments yet, but knowing these teams, it won’t be long. (Odds are they’ll probably have great support for the devices long before Oculus or anybody else actually ships a commercial headset.)
While these developments roll out, I imagine we are going to continue to see the bulk of VR development on closed platforms using proprietary tools, and active resistance, nay-saying and political posturing. For a while, it will be a war, resembling the fracas over HTML5 on mobile. But ultimately, the Web will win VR as it did mobile, and this, too, will pass.
In the meantime, native app devs: go forth and build silos. Create your mind-blowing Oculus demos. Stick them in front of investors – and have your checkbook ready to sign before their eyes uncross. Godspeed, I say!