The invention measures and collects data regarding the viability of an emerging technology and identifies imminent threats to its viability. The device consists of a measuring apparatus that uses consumer-grade virtual reality glasses worn on the body of the operator. The method comprises steps for evaluating the current state of the technology based on five key performance indicators, some subjective, others more subjective. The system synthesizes the key performance data in concert with a personally calibrated abdominal resonance feedback loop to produce a result. Results are presented in a normalized scale based on previously established technology failures and near-misses to provide an intuitively understandable assessment, suitable for use in career planning and investment portfolio analysis.
BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION
1. Field of the Invention
The invention pertains generally to risk assessment for new and potentially disruptive technologies. More specifically, the invention relates to providing an individual with enhanced capability to subjectively measure the maturity, stability and viability of a new technology, as well as identify potential externalities which may comprise competitive threats, based on that individual’s personal experience with previous similar technologies and their relative successes and failures in the marketplace.
The device employs traditional consumer-grade 3D virtual reality glasses in a novel way to allow increased focal potential, by blurring the normal vision and allowing intuitive and non-obvious inputs to take precedence. Those inputs are then directed through a personally calibrated abdominal resonance step, or “gut check,” assigned to one of five informational categories, or performance indicators, and normalized within a numeric range from 0 to 1. The invention does not stipulate a standard unit of measure; rather units are assigned within a specific domain of expertise and normalized to a range suitable for a particular industry, hype factor and total dollar investment. A simple arithmetic mean of the key indicators is used to calculate an aggregate result, which can be used for a “first look,” while the key indicators can be used to obtain detailed insight and help in contingency planning and competitive threat response.
The invention possesses numerous benefits and advantages over other well-known methods of risk assessment for new and potentially disruptive technologies. In particular, the invention can be operated by an individual in comfortable and familiar settings, relying on his/her own innate good sense and personal experience, rather than requiring substantial time searching on the Internet, enduring trade show panels and keynotes, and purchasing expensive market studies. The invention is also extremely cost-effective, making use of affordable consumer-grade glasses; such equipment can even be obtained for free in any IMAX or RealD experience theater.
A practical example of the power of the invention resides in its ability to allow the operator, typically an inventor or entrepreneur, to communicate with a potential customer, investor or business partner about the risks of the new technology in an everyday, nontechnical language. Thus the invention can help provide the required assurances that this incarnation, unlike its predecessors, is actually going to work.